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Lucas' Contributions to the Economic Sciences from a Historical Perspective: How Lucas Revolutionized Economists' Way of Thinking about Decision Making Modes of Intertemporally Motivated Rational Agents HAYAKAWA, Hiroaki この資料の著作権は、資料の著作者または学校法人中央大学に帰属します。著作権法が定める私的利用・引用を超える使用を希望される場合には、掲載誌発行部局へお問い合わせください。 intertemporal optimization rational expectations money anticipation environment neutrality of money econometric policy evaluation application/pdf Robert E. Lucas Jr. wrote two papers that changed the course of development of the economic sciences : "Expectations and the Neurality of Money" (1972) and "Econometric Policy Evaluation : A Critique" (1976). These papers were explicitly cited by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences when he received the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences. This paper is an attempt to place these papers in a historical perspective, with economics viewed as a moral science, particularly with respect to how fundamentally Lucas changed economists' way of understanding the decision making modes of intertemporally motivated agents and of modeling market equilibrium of a monetary economy of such agents. In the first paper, he modeled a monetary economy with intertemporally motivated agents under rational expectations, in which the decisions of such agents are guided by the market prices subjected to monetary and real disturbances. This paper, by demonstrating how agents' decisions differ from one policy regime to another, foreshadowed his critique of econometric policy evaluation in the second paper, which stunned the profession and opened the door to the development of the view that the movement of an economy is a stochastic process rather than a structural system of the behavioral equations that are invariant to policy regimes. Lucas' insight that the decision making modes of rational agents are intertwined intimately with the decision making environment has brought home the teleological nature of rational agents in economics as a moral science. 中央大学総合政策学部 2014-03-28 eng departmental bulletin paper VoR https://chuo-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/6426 1341-7827 総合政策研究(CJPSCS) Chuo Journal of Policy Sciences and Cultural Studies (CJPSCS) 22 1 43 https://chuo-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/6426/files/1341_7827~22~1.pdf application/pdf 948.7 kB 2019-04-22