@article{oai:chuo-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00012054, author = {小林, 秀徳}, journal = {総合政策研究, Japanese Journal of Policy and Culture}, month = {Mar}, note = {application/pdf, To improvement in policymaking the policy sciences has been recommending civil participation in policy analysis as scarce resource input for successful studies of themselves as well as citizens demanding knowledge for good decision. A case of failure in the emergency evacuation management for a disaster control was reported. I first answer the question why they failed. Modeling and simulation techniques of system dynamics and systems thinking help make clear the fact that the caution from the authority of sheltering order saying ‘Protect your life yourself’ makes no sense, especially in the case of ‘counter-intuitive behavior’ that exists in the structure of the system. I bring out the mathematical exposition of the theorem, then make another proposal to the public from the policy scientific point of view.}, pages = {97--110}, title = {総合政策からの提言 : 肱川の氾濫を教訓として}, volume = {28}, year = {2020}, yomi = {コバヤシ, ヒデノリ} }