@article{oai:chuo-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00012400,
 author = {清水, 啓太 and 山田, 正 and 山田, 朋人},
 journal = {中央大学理工学研究所論文集},
 month = {Mar},
 note = {application/pdf, The main purpose of hydrological frequency analysis is to estimate hydrological quantity with design return period. In conventional hydrological frequency analysis, we estimate T-year hydrological quantity by using observed data which were accumulated for several decades. However, observed data of extremes which were accumulated so far is so limited one that the design hydrological quantity includes uncertainty to a large extent. Moreover, one of the difficulties caused by shortage of extreme value data is not to predict catastrophic heavy rainfalls which deviate greatly from adopted probability distribution which is used for river planning. So, it is often impossible to evaluate catastrophic heavy rainfalls and these rainfalls are treated as unexpected. Therefore, we propose new hydrological frequency analysis introducing confidence interval and prediction interval based on probability limit method test. By introducing this confidence interval into hydrological frequency analysis, uncertainty of design hydrological quantity can be quantified. Also, by introducing this prediction interval, it can be possible to predict the scale and occurrence risk of catastrophic heavy rainfalls. In this research, the theoretical frame work of hydrological frequency analysis introducing confidence interval and prediction interval and its construction program are shown.},
 pages = {21--40},
 title = {確率限界法検定に基づく信頼区間・予測区間を導入した水文頻度解析手法および当該区間の構成プログラムの提案},
 volume = {25},
 year = {2020}
}