| Item type |
紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1) |
| 公開日 |
2020-07-04 |
| タイトル |
|
|
タイトル |
確率限界法検定に基づく信頼区間・予測区間を導入した水文頻度解析手法および当該区間の構成プログラムの提案 |
| タイトル |
|
|
タイトル |
A Proposal of Hydrological Frequency Analysis Introducing Confidence Interval and Prediction Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test and Its Construction Program |
|
言語 |
en |
| 言語 |
|
|
言語 |
jpn |
| 資源タイプ |
|
|
資源タイプ識別子 |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
|
資源タイプ |
departmental bulletin paper |
| ID登録 |
|
|
ID登録 |
10.24789/00012385 |
|
ID登録タイプ |
JaLC |
| 著者 |
清水, 啓太
山田, 正
山田, 朋人
|
| 著者別名(英) |
|
|
|
識別子Scheme |
WEKO |
|
|
識別子 |
49079 |
|
|
姓名 |
SHIMIZU, Keita |
|
|
言語 |
en |
| 著者別名(英) |
|
|
|
識別子Scheme |
WEKO |
|
|
識別子 |
23379 |
|
|
姓名 |
YAMADA, Tadashi |
|
|
言語 |
en |
| 著者別名(英) |
|
|
|
識別子Scheme |
WEKO |
|
|
識別子 |
49080 |
|
|
姓名 |
YAMADA, Tomohito |
|
|
言語 |
en |
| 抄録 |
|
|
内容記述タイプ |
Abstract |
|
内容記述 |
The main purpose of hydrological frequency analysis is to estimate hydrological quantity with design return period. In conventional hydrological frequency analysis, we estimate T-year hydrological quantity by using observed data which were accumulated for several decades. However, observed data of extremes which were accumulated so far is so limited one that the design hydrological quantity includes uncertainty to a large extent. Moreover, one of the difficulties caused by shortage of extreme value data is not to predict catastrophic heavy rainfalls which deviate greatly from adopted probability distribution which is used for river planning. So, it is often impossible to evaluate catastrophic heavy rainfalls and these rainfalls are treated as unexpected. Therefore, we propose new hydrological frequency analysis introducing confidence interval and prediction interval based on probability limit method test. By introducing this confidence interval into hydrological frequency analysis, uncertainty of design hydrological quantity can be quantified. Also, by introducing this prediction interval, it can be possible to predict the scale and occurrence risk of catastrophic heavy rainfalls. In this research, the theoretical frame work of hydrological frequency analysis introducing confidence interval and prediction interval and its construction program are shown. |
| 書誌情報 |
中央大学理工学研究所論文集
巻 25,
p. 21-40,
発行日 2020-03-31
|
| 出版者 |
|
|
出版者 |
中央大学理工学研究所 |
| ISSN |
|
|
収録物識別子タイプ |
ISSN |
|
収録物識別子 |
1343-0068 |
| 権利 |
|
|
権利情報 |
この資料の著作権は、資料の著作者または学校法人中央大学に帰属します。著作権法が定める私的利用・引用を超える使用を希望される場合には、掲載誌発行部局へお問い合わせください。 |
| フォーマット |
|
|
内容記述タイプ |
Other |
|
内容記述 |
application/pdf |
| 著者版フラグ |
|
|
出版タイプ |
VoR |
|
出版タイプResource |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
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